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Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Eases on German Data
Published: 24 Nov at 4 PM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Swiss Franc Exchange Rate, Euro Crisis, UK, Exchange Rates, Economy, Inflation, France, Pound Euro Exchaneg Rate,
The Pound to Euro exchange rate eased slightly on Monday after German business confidence increased unexpectedly in November as recent GDP data showed that the Eurozone’s largest economy avoided sliding into recession in the third quarter of the year.
According to the Ifo institutes data which is based on surveying 7,000 business executives across Germany, business confidence increased to a reading of 104.7 in November, up from the 103.2 seen in the preceding month.
‘The situation in Eastern Ukraine remains volatile and important trade partners like France and Italy continue to stagnate. However, the evidence that German business confidence and thus investment has passed the trough is mounting, supporting our call that Germany and the Eurozone will be back to trend growth rates from the second quarter of 2015 onwards. For the ECB, the upturn in German business confidence signals that the window of opportunity for large- scale additional easing might start closing after the winter if Germany and the Eurozone return to trend growth,’ said Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank.
Despite the positive data, the single currency’s gains were restrained after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned that inflation across the single currency bloc was dangerously low and hinted that more monetary easing measures will be introduced if the situation does not improve soon.
The Pound is likely to remain softer throughout the session due to a lack of market moving economic data out of the UK. The currency’s next day of movement because of domestic is likely to come in the middle of the week with the release of third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
Some economists are forecasting that the data (which is a second estimate) could see GDP growth grow at slower pace than initially forecast. The first estimate report suggested that the UK economy expanded by 3.2% in the third quarter but some traders are expecting growth to have dipped slightly to 3% in the second estimate. If that proves to be the case, we can expect the Pound to soften.
Other major data releases due for the Euro this week are Tuesday’s German GDP and French Business Confidence data and Friday’s Eurozone unemployment rate and latest Inflation Rate reports.
The jobless rate across the region is forecast to remain at 11.5% but inflation is expected to slip from the already worryingly low figure of 0.4% to 0.3%. A fall in inflation will likely weaken the Euro significantly as economist will raise their bets for the ECB introducing further monetary easing measures at its policy meeting due to be held on December 4.
According to the Ifo institutes data which is based on surveying 7,000 business executives across Germany, business confidence increased to a reading of 104.7 in November, up from the 103.2 seen in the preceding month.
‘The situation in Eastern Ukraine remains volatile and important trade partners like France and Italy continue to stagnate. However, the evidence that German business confidence and thus investment has passed the trough is mounting, supporting our call that Germany and the Eurozone will be back to trend growth rates from the second quarter of 2015 onwards. For the ECB, the upturn in German business confidence signals that the window of opportunity for large- scale additional easing might start closing after the winter if Germany and the Eurozone return to trend growth,’ said Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank.
Despite the positive data, the single currency’s gains were restrained after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned that inflation across the single currency bloc was dangerously low and hinted that more monetary easing measures will be introduced if the situation does not improve soon.
The Pound is likely to remain softer throughout the session due to a lack of market moving economic data out of the UK. The currency’s next day of movement because of domestic is likely to come in the middle of the week with the release of third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
Some economists are forecasting that the data (which is a second estimate) could see GDP growth grow at slower pace than initially forecast. The first estimate report suggested that the UK economy expanded by 3.2% in the third quarter but some traders are expecting growth to have dipped slightly to 3% in the second estimate. If that proves to be the case, we can expect the Pound to soften.
Other major data releases due for the Euro this week are Tuesday’s German GDP and French Business Confidence data and Friday’s Eurozone unemployment rate and latest Inflation Rate reports.
The jobless rate across the region is forecast to remain at 11.5% but inflation is expected to slip from the already worryingly low figure of 0.4% to 0.3%. A fall in inflation will likely weaken the Euro significantly as economist will raise their bets for the ECB introducing further monetary easing measures at its policy meeting due to be held on December 4.
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Source: moneytransfer.co.uk