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US Dollar to Indian Rupee (USD/INR) Exchange Rate Softens after RBI Decision
Published: 2 Dec at 12 PM Tags: Pound Sterling, Dollar Exchange Rate, Currency Exchange, Forex, Rupee Exchange Rate, Exchange Rates, Inflation,
The US Dollar to Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate has been trading in the region of a nine-month high of late as commodity price fluctuations, local economic concerns and global developments have all taken a toll on the higher-risk Rupee.
However, the Rupee managed to strengthen against the ‘Greenback’ on Tuesday, with the USD/INR exchange rate moving from a high of 62.0150 to a low of 61.8600. The Rupee was supported at the beginning of the week by an impressive Manufacturing PMI for India. The measure of manufacturing showed the most rapid improvement in business conditions since the beginning of 2013, with the headline index climbing from 51.6 to 53.3 in November. This marked the 13th consecutive month of improvement. The data saw economist Pranjul Bhandari comment; ‘Manufacturing activity accelerated further in November led by higher output and new orders. Domestic orders saw the biggest increase, even as new export orders continued to be strong. The sharp rise in input prices was surprising, but future prints may be lower as falling commodity prices eventually lead to softer intermediate good prices. Meanwhile, the pick-up in output prices could partly be signalling some revival in pricing power among businesses. Higher output and an uptick in final prices should convince the RBI to stay on hold in the upcoming meeting.’
On Tuesday the Rupee consolidated and extended gains after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to leave the interest rate on hold. India’s central bank intimated that rates might be cut in early 2015, but opted to leave borrowing costs on hold at 8% for the fifth consecutive policy meeting. RBI Governor Rajan said of the decision; ‘A change in the monetary policy stance at the current juncture is premature. However, if the current inflation momentum and changes in inflationary expectations continue, and fiscal developments are encouraging, a change in the monetary policy stance is likely early next year, including outside the policy review cycle. [...] As we go into the early part of next year we will have more confidence that the government is achieving its fiscal targets. We can be confident in expectation but then we will be confident in realisation when we actually see that happen.’
The Rupee advanced on the US Dollar after the decision, and was also trending in a stronger position against the Pound, with the Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate falling by 0.3% to a low of 97.0490. Tomorrow India will publish its HSBC Services PMI, and the data could have a notable impact on the Rupee’s performance. The gauge of the services sector is forecast to rise from 50.0 (just on the border between growth and contraction) to 51.1 in November. A strong reading could see the Rupee secure additional gains.
However, the Rupee managed to strengthen against the ‘Greenback’ on Tuesday, with the USD/INR exchange rate moving from a high of 62.0150 to a low of 61.8600. The Rupee was supported at the beginning of the week by an impressive Manufacturing PMI for India. The measure of manufacturing showed the most rapid improvement in business conditions since the beginning of 2013, with the headline index climbing from 51.6 to 53.3 in November. This marked the 13th consecutive month of improvement. The data saw economist Pranjul Bhandari comment; ‘Manufacturing activity accelerated further in November led by higher output and new orders. Domestic orders saw the biggest increase, even as new export orders continued to be strong. The sharp rise in input prices was surprising, but future prints may be lower as falling commodity prices eventually lead to softer intermediate good prices. Meanwhile, the pick-up in output prices could partly be signalling some revival in pricing power among businesses. Higher output and an uptick in final prices should convince the RBI to stay on hold in the upcoming meeting.’
On Tuesday the Rupee consolidated and extended gains after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to leave the interest rate on hold. India’s central bank intimated that rates might be cut in early 2015, but opted to leave borrowing costs on hold at 8% for the fifth consecutive policy meeting. RBI Governor Rajan said of the decision; ‘A change in the monetary policy stance at the current juncture is premature. However, if the current inflation momentum and changes in inflationary expectations continue, and fiscal developments are encouraging, a change in the monetary policy stance is likely early next year, including outside the policy review cycle. [...] As we go into the early part of next year we will have more confidence that the government is achieving its fiscal targets. We can be confident in expectation but then we will be confident in realisation when we actually see that happen.’
The Rupee advanced on the US Dollar after the decision, and was also trending in a stronger position against the Pound, with the Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate falling by 0.3% to a low of 97.0490. Tomorrow India will publish its HSBC Services PMI, and the data could have a notable impact on the Rupee’s performance. The gauge of the services sector is forecast to rise from 50.0 (just on the border between growth and contraction) to 51.1 in November. A strong reading could see the Rupee secure additional gains.
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Source: moneytransfer.co.uk