Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rate Outlook ? Inflation Data Lends ?Aussie? Support

The Australian Dollar was able to surge by over 1% against the US Dollar on Wednesday and also recorded notable gains against peers like the Pound, Euro and New Zealand Dollar as Australia’s Consumer Price Index for the first quarter eased concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be about to introduce another interest rate cut. The annual first quarter CPI printed at 1.3%, down from 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year but in line with expectations. On the quarter, consumer prices advanced by 0.2% - beating projections for a reading of 0.1%. Separate Australian data revealed a -0.3% dip in the Westpac Leading Index in March, month-on-month, and a 0.4% rise in skilled vacancies over the same period.

Prior to the release of the inflation numbers, the ‘Aussie’ managed to recoup some of the losses sustained in response to the recent commentary from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens. In the view of industry expert Stephen Innes; ‘The Aussie Dollar is up ahead of today’s key domestic consumer-price index (CPI) data which is being looked at as the main driver for the prospects of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in May. Overnight, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens did his best to talk the currency down by suggesting lower interest rates are appropriate. But now the market awaits action to back up his verbal intervention.’

The AUD/USD exchange rate was able to achieve a high of 0.7804 during the Australasian session before dipping slightly to trade in the region of 0.7795. Broad-based weakness in the US Dollar as a result of scaled back Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations also contributed to the Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate uptrend.

The RBA’s Glenn Stevens had previously attempted to talk the ‘Aussie’ lower by hinting at the prospect of borrowing costs being further trimmed. During a recent speech in New York Stevens asserted; ‘So interest rates should be quite accommodative and the question of whether they should be reduced further has to be on the table. The board has clearly signalled a willingness to lower [the benchmark rate] even further, should that be helpful in securing sustainable economic growth.’

Tomorrow China’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI could cause Australian Dollar movement. The manufacturing gauge is believed to have fallen from 49.6 to 49.4. As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, should the data match estimates, the wind could be knocked out of the ‘Aussie’s sails.