Euro to Indonesian Rupiah (EUR/IDR) Exchange Rate Forecast to Trend within Limited Range despite Increasing Grexit Potential

The shared currency is holding relatively steady versus most of its major peers on Monday despite continued anxieties regarding a Greek exit from the Eurozone. A fractional uptrend can be attributed to positive results from Eurozone Trade Balance data, which saw the trade surplus advance beyond expectations.

After yet another week passed without any progress made towards unlocking bailout funds, the situation for Greece is looking increasingly bleak. Last week saw representatives from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) walk out of talks with Greek officials after it became clear that there would be no common ground. Additionally, the European Union announced that it is preparing for the Hellenic nation to leave the Eurozone for the first time since talks were initiated. ‘The shadow of a Greek exit from the Eurozone is becoming increasingly perceptible,’ Germany’s Economy Minister and Vice-Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, wrote in Bild newspaper. ‘Greece’s game theorists are gambling the future of their country and Europe’s too.’

Despite increasing speculation regarding the high potential for a Grexit, the shared currency is generally holding steady versus its major peers on Monday. This is likely to be the result of traders having felt that Greek difficulties were well and truly priced-in to the Euro exchange rate. Furthermore, many analysts don’t see a great deal of risk associated with a Greek exit. With the European Central Bank (ECB) pumping liquidity into Euro-area countries, the risk of contagion is significantly diminished compared to last time Greece’s position in the Eurozone was threatened.

The Euro to Indonesian Rupiah (EUR/IDR) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 14970.8898.

Data pertaining to Indonesia printed relatively positively on Monday which saw the Rupiah edge higher versus many of its competitors. May’s Trade Balance came in at $0.95 billion, bettering the median market forecast of a $0.5 billion Dollar surplus. The better-than-expected result was due to a large drop in imports, which declined by -21.40% in May on the year. The Rupiah gains have been somewhat sluggish, however, thanks to the large drop in imports. Whilst it was positive for trade balance, and so should be positive for the current account, a large drop in imports suggests economic slowdown. Aldian Taloputra, economist at Mandiri Sekuritas, said the import decline ‘was quite big. This will be positive for the current account balance, but this is also an indication of weak economic growth.’ Many analysts have attributed the slide in imports to slowing consumption ahead of Ramadan.

The Euro to Indonesian Rupiah (EUR/IDR) exchange rate was trending within the range of 14907.1185 – 15021.9343 during Monday’s European session.