Minor Gains recorded in USD-INR Exchange Rate Today as US Results are Thin on the Ground
At a time when the future of the US economy faces increasing uncertainty due to external pressures and the ever-elusive event of a Fed interest rate hike, the US Dollar has managed to achieve a small gain against the Indian Rupee (USD-INR), reaching an exchange rate of 64.8440. This has come despite a number of detrimental factors affecting the ‘Buck’.
One example of such things has been India’s economic publications today; the Indian annual Industrial and Manufacturing Production results for August have both risen to far higher figures than had been predicted and the same was also true of the yearly September Inflation Rate. Working against the US Dollar on the domestic side has been the perpetual doubt lingering over whether or not the Fed will raise the interest rate in the two remaining chances that they have left this year, which are October 28th and December 16th. Despite Fed officials voicing bullish sentiments after their last interest rate freeze, this optimism seems to have faded away since a spate of negative US results came through, including the Change in Non-Farm Payrolls figure and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite.
USD-INR Future to be decided by Future Fed Speeches and Indian Inflation Rate
The Fed will once again be key to deciding the movement of the USD-INR exchange rate in the future. Today, speeches from Fed policymakers Dennis Lockhart, Charles Evans and Lael Brainard have been taking place, although given the negative impact had by recent US data, it remains to be seen if even highly optimistic forecasts from these Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will be sufficient to inspire any noticeable degree of confidence in the US economy.
On the Rupee side of things, movement is likely to come from Wednesday’s WPI Inflation result for September; in a positive turn of events for the ‘Greenback’, forecasts have been for a decline of -4.6% and predictions have been similarly pessimistic for the WPI Fuel, Manufacturing and Food results. In addition to these factors, any further increases in the price of crude oil per barrel will likely devalue the Rupee in relation to the US Dollar.
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