After some promising UK unemployment data, the GBP/NZD exchange rate has seen positive movement, recovering some ground towards the monthly high which preceded the ‘Super Thursday’ slump.
GBP/NZD Exchange Rate Trending Up With UK Jobs Data Release
After a few days stagnating Pound Sterling has seen a slight upward trend following the release of UK employment data. The Bank of England’s (BoE) dovish announcements on what was meant to be ‘Super Thursday’ saw GBP fall across the board. A few days without any significant data on the calendar provided nothing to move Pound Sterling either up or down.
UK jobs data, released today, sees unemployment hitting a seven-year low, with a rate of 5.3%. The number of people out of work between July and September fell 103,000 to a record 1.75 million. 177,000 more people were employed than in Q2, and 419,000 Year-on-Year (YoY). It wasn’t all good news, with this quarter’s Average Weekly Earnings failing to rise above the previous rate of 3.0%, despite a forecast of 3.2%. Jobless Claims Change also saw a dramatic rise above the forecast 1.4k, hitting 3.3k.
The overall outlook was positive and Pound Sterling benefitted from a renewed confidence in the UK economy, with the latest evidence creating the potential for an earlier-than-anticipated BoE interest rise. This has been supported by hawkish comments from BoE governor Mark Carney, who suggests that the UK is strong enough to weather the increased risks posed by the global economy – fears of which being one of the main reasons cited by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for leaving interest rates at 0.5% last week.
NZD/GBP Exchange Rate Down in the Face of UK Employment Figures
The New Zealand Dollar is currently losing ground to Pound Sterling despite seeing rises against the US Dollar (USD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) and the Euro (EUR). The high-risk ‘Kiwi’ is benefitting from a cooling in demand towards the ‘Buck’, as investors worry about the affect overvaluation could have on the US economy.
Strong US Non-Farm Payrolls originally saw the ‘Greenback’ shoot up, along with the probability of a December interest rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Bullish performance of the US Dollar saw investors and businesses worrying that an overly strong US asset could harm economic progress and therefore push back any action by the FOMC. This saw the ‘Kiwi’ appreciate, and it continues to do so against several of the major currencies.
Pound Sterling to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) Exchange Rate Forecast: US Jobs Data Could Weaken NZD
With little relevant reporting for the UK or New Zealand due out this week, the pair’s performance is likely to be dictated by the large amount of US data due tomorrow and Friday. Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims will have a strong effect on the ‘Kiwi’, as they could further increase confidence in a December Fed rate hike, which already has a likelihood of 68%.
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