The euro rises to a nine month high against the pound
The pound fell to a new nine month low against the euro yesterday as Friday’s data showing that the UK economy shrank by 0.3% in December, paving the way for the possibility that the UK will suffer its first triple-dip recession since records began.
After the collapse of Jessops last week, yesterday bought the news that HMV are also going into administration, putting up to 4,000 jobs across 235 stores at risk. Friday sees the release of UK retail sales for December which should simply emphasise the pressure the British High Street continues to be under.
This morning, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported that the UK house price balance rose to 0 in December versus a reading of -9 in November. The report highlights that interest from both buyers and sellers is at good levels with new-buyer enquiries edging up to 12 (from 10) while the new-seller instructions balance was flat at 2.
Economists at Barclays Research commented that “The data on activity were a bit mixed, but overall they were consistent with a stabilisation in the housing market”.
As well as advancing to a nine month high against the pound, yesterday the euro advanced to an eleven month high against the dollar as the markets took in the comments from various euro zone leaders that the worst of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis is over.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s commented last week about a "positive contagion" in European markets as the ECB left the central bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%.
In the US, Chicago Federal Reserve President and voting FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) member Charles Evans said that the US central bank is ready to act to support the US economy in light of the ongoing struggle with its fiscal policy ahead of the April deadline.
Evans said “Given more explicit conditionality, markets can be more confident that we will provide the monetary accommodation necessary to close the large resource gaps that currently exist.”
Evans also restated that the Fed was committed to helping the labour market and reiterated that expectations are for interest rates to remain low until probably mid-2015. Evans forecasts that US unemployment will reach 7.4% this year and drop to around 7% in 2014 and that the US economy will grow 2.5% in 2013 and by 3.5% in 2014.
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