The pound receives another boost

The pound opened at a 7 week high against the euro and a 8 week high against the US dollar after receiving a boost from better than expected UK retail sales figures and a positive report from the Confederation of British Industry.

Figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed that retail footfall in July was boosted by the sunny weather to show an increase of 0.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month.

The biggest annual rise was seen on the High Street, where the figure rose by 2.3%. By comparison, shopping centres showed a decline except out of town locations which saw an increase of 0.9%.

Meanwhile, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) raised its forecast yesterday for the UK economy in both 2013 and 2014 but warned that rebalancing away from consumption towards investment and trade is taking longer than expected. The CBI now predict economic growth for 2013 will be 1.2%, up from 1.0% in their last forecast in May forecast.

For 2014, the CBI now expect the economy to gather pace, forecasting growth of 2.3%, up from the 2.0% predicted in May.

The CBI also predict a return to growth in the Euro area and said broader global recovery will give a positive boost to exports but warned that imports will also grow as the UK’s domestic situation improves.

John Cridland, CBI Director-General, said yesterday “The economy has started to gain momentum and confidence is picking up, but it’s still early days. We need to see a full-blown rebalancing of our economy, with stronger business investment and trade before we can call a sustainable recovery. We hope that will begin to emerge next year, as the euro zone starts growing again. The government needs to get behind talented UK businesses to help them break into new export markets and sell great British products and services around the globe.”

The US dollar remained steady against its major rivals yesterday as the market’s focus shifts to the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday night which should give clues as to when the US central bank will start winding down its monetary stimulus.

Data out of the US of late has been decidedly mixed, putting into question the US economic momentum and crucially when the Fed will decide to reduce the pace of its monetary stimulus. Some analysts continue to speculate that the tapering of the Fed’s $85 billion a month stimulus measures could start as early as next month.

The euro started the week on the back foot yesterday despite a report from the Bundesbank expects the German economy to return to normal growth in the second half of this year and inflation to ease further.

The Bundesbank reported that “Economic growth in Germany is likely to return to normal and steady rates in the second half of 2013”.

Last week, Germany reported stronger-than-expected growth for the second quarter, helping to lift the euro zone to finally exit an 18-month long double-dip recession.

The good news out of Germany was in stark contrast to the latest news out of Spain which showed that bad loans at Spanish banks hit a record high in June as a ratio of total issued credit according to the latest data release from the Bank of Spain.

The data showed that the percentage of bad loans hit 11.61%, its highest level on record, compared to May's reading of 11.2%.