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The US dollar remains centre stage

Published: 8 Oct at 11 AM Tags: Pound Sterling, Dollar Exchange Rate, Forex, UK,

The US dollar remains under pressure despite a quiet start to the trading week as the US government shutdown enters its second week and fears grow about a potential default on 17 October if the US fails to lift its debt ceiling.

The Secretary of the US Treasury, Jack Lew was busy over the weekend. Amongst other appearances, he told CNN´s State of the Union programme that the Republicans are “playing with fire” in their opposition to President Obama’s plans which has seen the first US government shutdown in nearly 17 years and threatens its first debt default. The US Treasury could forestall a "technical default" by re-prioritising expenditures but at the very least this would result in a further significant fiscal drag.

In response, the Republican speaker of the US House of Representatives John Boehner has reportedly told his members both behind closed doors and on TV that he doesn’t intend to let the government default even if it involves using Democratic votes. However, he added that “we are not going to pass a clean debt limit without any provisions” and that in his opinion, “the votes are not in the House of Representatives to pass a clean debt limit”.

The Republicans have a 232 to 200 majority in the lower chamber of Congress meaning they can only allow themselves to lose 15 votes. Reports indicate however that there is a small minority of Republicans who might be inclined to vote with their peers on the other side of the aisle.

According to Boehner, President Obama needs to tackle what he calls the “drivers” of the country´s debt, which in his opinion are entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security.

Boehner said “I don’t want the United States to default on its debt but I’m not going to raise the debt limit without a serious conversation about dealing with problems that are driving the debt up,”.

On their part, the Democrats claim to be willing to negotiate so long as the figurative gun is not aimed at their heads. Meanwhile, the shutdown has entered into a second week with little sign of any resolution for the time being.

The pound opened somewhat pressured with the latest data from the British high street making grim reading. According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and accountancy firm KPMG, UK retailers endured their toughest month of the year so far in September, sparking fresh concerns over the strength of the UK economic recovery.

The BRC reported that like for like retail sales rose by only 0.7% against the 1.5% growth registered in September 2012.

Analysts are suggesting that the unusually warm weather in September stifled sales of autumn and winter clothing while grocery sales fell as supermarkets cut prices to lure shoppers.

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