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All eyes on tomorrow?s policy announcements
Published: 8 Jan at 9 AM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Dollar Exchange Rate, Euro Crisis, UK, Economy, Inflation,
Before the latest policy announcements from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank due out tomorrow, the pound regained most of Monday’s losses after the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) announced that the UK economy is growing as a solid pace with 2014 off to a 'fantastic start'.
In its latest quarterly survey of nearly 8,000 businesses, the BCC found that all the critical fourth quarter balances were stronger than their long-term averages with many now above their pre-recession levels. As a result, the BCC is now predicting that data will come to show that the UK economy will have grown by as much as 0.9% in the final three months of 2013.
BCC Chief Economist David Kern said “The upbeat results of our survey, with most fourth quarter key balances higher than their 2007 pre-recession levels and some at their all-time highs, suggest that the UK recovery will continue to strengthen further in the short term. However, the current level of growth, driven by buoyant housing and strong increases in household consumption, will weaken slightly in reaction to unduly high personal debt levels," Kern said.
The dollar strengthened yesterday ahead of tonight’s publication of the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and after data showed the US trade gap narrowed.
The US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit fell almost 13% in November to a total of $34.3 billion with exports reaching a record high.
There was mixed news from the euro zone yesterday.
On the positive side, there was a better than expected employment report from Germany with jobless claims in December falling by 15,000 from November on a seasonally adjusted basis. The jobless rate remains unchanged at 6.9%, close to its record low.
In addition, Germany's national statistics office Destatis reported a further sign of recovery as the country's November retail sales rose by 1.5% month-on-month, easily beating analyst estimates for a 0.5% increase.
On the negative side, data out yesterday showed that euro zone inflation slipped further below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target according to the latest data from Eurostat.
The consumer price index (CPI) for the region registered an increase of just 0.8%, down from November's 0.9% rise and even further below the 2% target rate for inflation.
Commenting on the data, economists at Capital Economics said “The latest prices data support the view that CPI inflation is likely to remain significantly below the ECB’s 2% price stability ceiling for rather longer than the central bank expects. While the ECB may refrain from providing additional policy support on Thursday, we expect further action in the months ahead.”
In its latest quarterly survey of nearly 8,000 businesses, the BCC found that all the critical fourth quarter balances were stronger than their long-term averages with many now above their pre-recession levels. As a result, the BCC is now predicting that data will come to show that the UK economy will have grown by as much as 0.9% in the final three months of 2013.
BCC Chief Economist David Kern said “The upbeat results of our survey, with most fourth quarter key balances higher than their 2007 pre-recession levels and some at their all-time highs, suggest that the UK recovery will continue to strengthen further in the short term. However, the current level of growth, driven by buoyant housing and strong increases in household consumption, will weaken slightly in reaction to unduly high personal debt levels," Kern said.
The dollar strengthened yesterday ahead of tonight’s publication of the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and after data showed the US trade gap narrowed.
The US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit fell almost 13% in November to a total of $34.3 billion with exports reaching a record high.
There was mixed news from the euro zone yesterday.
On the positive side, there was a better than expected employment report from Germany with jobless claims in December falling by 15,000 from November on a seasonally adjusted basis. The jobless rate remains unchanged at 6.9%, close to its record low.
In addition, Germany's national statistics office Destatis reported a further sign of recovery as the country's November retail sales rose by 1.5% month-on-month, easily beating analyst estimates for a 0.5% increase.
On the negative side, data out yesterday showed that euro zone inflation slipped further below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target according to the latest data from Eurostat.
The consumer price index (CPI) for the region registered an increase of just 0.8%, down from November's 0.9% rise and even further below the 2% target rate for inflation.
Commenting on the data, economists at Capital Economics said “The latest prices data support the view that CPI inflation is likely to remain significantly below the ECB’s 2% price stability ceiling for rather longer than the central bank expects. While the ECB may refrain from providing additional policy support on Thursday, we expect further action in the months ahead.”
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Source: moneytransfer.co.uk