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The pound takes a tumble

Published: 4 Feb at 10 AM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Australian Dollar Exchange Rate, Euro Crisis, UK, Economy,

The pound started a new month by falling against all 16 of the most actively traded currencies in the market yesterday.

A combination of poor worldwide economic data, giving rise to fresh doubts over the world economic outlook and the turmoil in the so-called emerging markets looked to be the main factors behind the sharp sterling sell-off.

Property market research group Hometrack reported that UK house prices rose in January at their slowest rate for six months and seem to be propped up by the biggest gap between supply and demand since 2009. Hometrack reported that prices increased by just 0.3% during January as demand dropped off during the Christmas and New Year break.

Meanwhile, Markit reported that the UK Manufacturing PMI index unexpectedly fell in January from a reading of 57.3 in December to 56.7 in January despite strong levels of output and new orders. UK export orders are also at a 3 year high. The January figure represents a 3 month low.

In the euro zone, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at its strongest rate of expansion since May 2011 and showed job creation for the first time in nearly two years in the latest data for January 2014.

Germany led the expansion as growth in the euro zone's largest economy hit a 32 month high.

Markit also suggested that the latest reading suggested that euro zone Gross Domestic Product growth in the first quarter of 2014 should come in at 0.4% to 0.5% and that could take the pressure off the European Central Bank (ECB) to add further stimulus measures when they meet for their next policy meeting on Thursday.

In the US, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing sector survey fell unexpectedly sharply in January from a reading of 57 in December to just 51.3 in January. The plunge in the manufacturing gauge was blamed on the recent extreme weather conditions across many parts of the US.

In addition, US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew warned yesterday that the US is on course to hit its so-called debt ceiling, the limit to which it can legally borrow, by the end of this month and called on Congress to raise it immediately to prevent the issue from harming the economic recovery, adding that the government would start defaulting on its debt "very soon" if Congress failed to act.

Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its latest policy decision and kept its main policy rate unchanged at 2.5%. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens commented that prudence was needed as confidence in the outlook for the global economy remained fragile. The markets had expected a further cut in Australian interest rates to stimulate the domestic economy now that the mining industry is contracting in response to the slowdown in the rate of growth of China’s economy.
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