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The Pound Sterling gives up its recent gains

Published: 11 Apr at 12 PM Tags: Pound Sterling, Euro Exchange Rate, Dollar Exchange Rate, Euro Crisis, UK, Economy, Inflation, Spain,

The pound gave up its recent gains yesterday against the euro and the US dollar despite the Bank of England keeping monetary policy unchanged for at least another month.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain the Bank Rate unchanged at its record low level at 0.5%, where it has stood since March 2009 and the size of the asset purchase programme was also left unchanged at £375 billion.

Speculation is growing of an increase in UK interest rates, possibly even before the next general election due by the summer of 2015 after the International Monetary Fund raised its forecasts for the rate of growth in the UK economy for the next 2 years.

Meanwhile, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) revealed yesterday that mortgage lending volumes continued to surge in February.

The number of loans was up a massive 33% between February 2013 and February 2014.

Lending to first-time buyers rose by 2.3% on the month to 22,000, representing 41% growth in the last year.

On a more negative tone, credit ratings agency Fitch reported yesterday that the prospects for the UK returning to its former 'AAA' credit rating would be delayed if Scotland votes for independence in its referendum due in September.

Fitch stated that Scottish independence would lead to a one-off increase of 9.5% of GDP in the UK gross public debt ratio.

Fitch said "As we have previously emphasised, the UK's gross debt ratio will need to be lower than its current level and steadily declining before any upgrade back to 'AAA'; a prospect that would be delayed by such a debt shock."

The UK originally lost its AAA rating in April 2013. Fitch added that independence would also be "mildly negative" for the UK's balance of payments and external balance sheet.

The US dollar also found support after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that US import prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month in March but fell by 0.6% between March 2013 and March 2014.

The euro was supported yesterday by bond auctions in the euro zone with the return of Greece to the bond market for the first time since the country was bailed out in 2010. The Greek Treasury saw a high demand for its five-year bonds, allowing it to offer lower yields than had been expected by analysts.

Meanwhile, the Spanish Treasury also issued short-term sovereign debt that also saw high demand but with a yield that rose slightly since the last issuance and Ireland, which exited its own international bailout in December sold €1 billion in 10-year bonds for a yield of 2.917% compared to 2.967% in a prior comparable auction.

Overnight, China's latest inflation data was published and showed a smaller rise in March than had been anticipated.

Year-on-year, the consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 2.4% in March compared to a 2% increase in February.


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